Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding

Sea level rise will cause spatial shifts in economic activity over the next 200 years. Using a spatially disaggregated, dynamic model of world economy, this paper estimates consequences probabilistic projections local sea changes. Under an intermediate scenario greenhouse gas emissions, permanent flooding is projected to reduce global real GDP by 0.19 percent present value terms. By year 2200, 1.46 population be displaced. Losses coastal localities are much larger. When ignoring response investment and migration, loss 2200 increases from 0.11 4.5 percent. (JEL E23, F01, Q54, Q56)